Using this expected goals model and corresponding game maps I made a quick analysis of the games that have been played so far in the Argentine league. Expected goals are generally seen as a more reliable measure of a team’s quality than goals or shots. As there are relatively few few goals in a match there is a high variability in the conversion over a short period. Shots on the other do not tell us much either as a shot from 35 meters out is different than a tap-in.
Here’s an example of a game map from Fecha 5:
Over- and underperforming teams
A table of differences between expected goals and actual goals in the tournament and the resulting goal differences. You can see the teams that have scored more goals than would have been expected from the shots they took (eg. Def. y Justicia, Colón and Vélez):
This is how the table would have looked given the probability of results from the game maps, which are calculated based on the shot values (expected goals).
The biggest “underperformers”, those who would have deserved more, are: Argentinos Juniors, Quilmes, Huracán and Olimpo.
The biggest “overperformers”, or the “lucky” ones: Lanús, Vélez and Atlético Tucumán.
Based on a prediction model I will explain in a later post, those are the given probabilities for the upcoming Fecha 6:
Using the same prediction model a league table is predicted for the end of the season after each game week.
Corresponding Betting tips
The following tips are generated based on the probabilities above and use odds from betexplorer.com:
Results of THIS week
The model made a very small profit of 2,53 units on the main bets, the alternative bets lost a total of 1,43 units. This leaves a total profit of no more that 1,10, or 2%, over the placed bets.