Expected goals maps

In this previous post I described my expected goals model for the Primera División (Argentina). Here I will quickly show some first examples of the resulting game maps:

Rosario Central – Newell’s Old boys

This is an example of the xG map and corresponding information on the clásico of Rosario of last February 14th. As you can see on the pitch Rosario Central trashed their local rivales: they took a lot of shots, and the majority from very good locations.

The table in the image below:
Shots (‘disparos’): amount of shots for each team, without own goals and penalties
Goals (‘goles total’): amount of goals scored including own goals and penalties (final result)
Own goals (‘goles en contra): own goals in favor
Penalties (‘penales’): penalties in favor (includes missed penalties)
Expected goals (‘goles esperados’): sum of expected goals of all shots. Again no penalties and own goals.
Win probability (‘probabilidad victoria’): probability of a win given all shots.
Draw probability (‘probabilidad empate’): probability of a draw given all shots.

The sum of expected goals of all shots was 2,50, that of Newell’s only 0,33 (from 2 shots). In the two right columns the probabilities are given for a win, draw and loss. Those are calculated based on the values of each individual shot: the probability that Rosario Central would score more goals than Newell’s given the shot values of both teams was 87%.

(Newell’s shot values were 0,32 and 0,01. The probability that they scored 0 goals is 0,99*0,68=0,673, 1 goal 0,99*0,32+0,68*0,01=0,323 and 2 goals 0,32*0,01=0,003. The same calculation was made for Rosario’s 22 shots and then compared to see the chances they would beat Newell’s given the shot values)

Expected goals map Rosario Central vs Newell's (14/2/2016)
Expected goals map Rosario Central vs Newell’s (14/2/2016)

Red = goal
Blue = shot saved by goalkeeper
Grey/blue = off target or on post

Boca Juniors – Atlético Tucumán

This was supposed to be a “win-or-out” match for Boca manager Arruabarrena. And although they lost he did not get fired. Maybe the directors saw that Boca was very unlucky to not score and not win the game (which was 0,51 given all shots).

Boca Juniors - Atlético Tucumán
Boca Juniors – Atlético Tucumán

Here’s a link with more detailed info on each shot.

River Plate – Independiente

Not losing was most important for both teams.

River Plate - Independiente
River Plate – Independiente


Season data per team

Expected goals per team

Expected table:

Table based on probability of results
Table based on probability of results

2 thoughts on “Expected goals maps

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